If Burners could get the puppet people to Burning Man then the big and good tipping might be able to spill in much more extreme and unpredictable ways. Yes! Puppets are much important! I will spill suggestion into Colorado.

If Nesdon is still listening AND ACTUALLY HAS THE MONEY I think it should go to puppets.

Whatever happened to Nesdon the eggplant-head?

Chicken is a spoiled little child and totally unsuited to moderate discussions. He deletes posts from anyone who disagrees with him.

HEY! What happened to the uncomfortable art? If you're going to delete stuff you should catch it sooner.

Burning Man seriously began tilting in 1996. 1996 was the year of the infamous motorcycle crash and the possibly more infamous 'inebriated man runs over tent in darkness', which in turn brought down the wrath of the law. The attention this brought to focus also brought the legions of attendees which were soon to follow. Prior to this period probably 95% of those who made the migration were from San Francisco and the surrounding vicinity.

1997 brought the beginning of these throngs, the publicity and enforced rules and regulations. Soon to follow were an explosion of regional burns, sales of ice and coffee on site, decompression parties offsite, convoys of RVs, ranches and offices nearby, year round events, recompression parties, storage units situated to capitalize on burners who came from places sometimes continents away, stickers on Cadillacs, discounts at nearby hotels and motels, car washes to wash vehicles leaving the playa, Indian Taco stands, migrations of Humvees . . . how many other examples do you need?

Later would be yearly articles in mainstream newspapers and magazines, television shows dedicated to Burning Man; including documentary, sitcoms and cartoons and notable mentions by so called celebrities who claimed to have attended.

That said, who cares?

It surprising there hasn't been any mention of regional burns, which I interpret as a way of measuring whether a concept has become "epidemic" or not. The exponential growth each year in the size of InterFuse, the Midwestern regional burn near Boonville, Missouri (see http://midwestburners.com), now in its third year, is a darn good indication that the Burning Man meme has penetrated the Heartland. That said, I recently spoke to a friend who's been in SF for over a year now who asked me honestly and innocently, "What's Burning Man?" It is not yet a household word in Kansas or Missouri, although it's getting there...

Burning man tipped in 1996. I think it was because of Chicken John.

here is the other Polish text. Thank you for you input, a world view is always a good thing....


They include surface john near Chicken. That presents territory of country and in considerable in borders of slovakia whole area put part < frequent >. Structures neighbor from northern part on from they distinguishing (differ) in respect and heights above sea level external western carpathians. Region consists from mountain chains built from rocks magmowych and metamorficznych and on them from rocks with superiority filling pokrywach osadowych wapieni, as well as along with sandstones valleys separating it (them) < eat > covered < cover > of the tatra highlands ( fliszem ?upki ilaste and ) mu?owcami and in some places precipitates (settlements) man Burning. And river accumulation. Heights total (take away; amount to) put valleys in central western carpathians from 490 on area for over 2400 in tatra with highest summit (top) m above sea level m above sea level most lower polish < poland > Orawsko-Nowotarskiej 2499 m above sea level - feature ( ).

this is the translation of the polish text below....


What (which) plays case (together; time) on? Happens time silicium? Situation Beguile , not imitate about recognized (regard) renown in professional league sportsman e, suddenly < snap >, with (from) ró? Cause nych, brilliance loses. In (to)? But? Not now jeste? We? In execution such john wiadkami degrengolady Chickena. Will hit it in 1989 year when? Stand with number for 17 many expert BMORG pow? tpiewa? About in (to) usefully? Sportsman, Smokes what zrezygnowa? From game in (to) collegu. In today's times, proceeding on from (with) when directly zawodowstwo szko? y? Does not make it redniej ju? On who wra? enia, It? Aden of argument. Then, however, musia? swoj? gr? Will prove it? swoj? prawdziw? koszykarsk? Is proper it? Will make it and? It. Man Burning powiedzia? When? He (it) about it " not mo? e? ju? Better, it is athletic, wietnie wyka? Share (action) cza, assembles (collect) it philippines? ki, It is firm, is able it wybra? Moment for cast (throw), free hits, everything it knows (be able) ". Hmm, Who? Who only zacz? przygod? With (from) Chickena, móg? What in order to? About I not nice pomy? le? Will recognize (will regard) it simply or? In order to, carries it silicium e? For other sportsman. Almost < law (as of right) >? Page (s) adne? It mismatches by for sportsman spoken out owo Covensa, plays what? In (to) dru? Portland ynie. Kemp? oci? But? y, Fails it? wyka? cza? Showy share (action), zatraci? Instinct for battle on table. Appears it in (to) many matches? Silicium y? przeb? Form yski, however, wci? Not ? What this sportsman pami? From game in (to) san francisco tamy. But pami? Who tamy? Tears who? Silicium? By defense? Rivals, pushes skier nothing silicium? pomi? dzy tyczkami. Causes it cat movements (traffic)? y, Failed they e? We oderwa? From it (him) sight, but when ju? Will win money it? All obro? Is able it ców? zapakowa? Philippines? k? From mountain (top) how has? About who. Risk it finally? Offense technical c, cz? Hinges (suspend) hundred? Silicium? On table showy. It? Beguile it in (to) gle pami? It wspania? Single room (duel) e, what (which) stoczy? In 1993 year with (from) to finn Barkleyem? Conference ach. Will make it with (from) Paytonem? Duet, looks like what? For phase that year Supersonics play-off, in (to) 1996 for great finn but even? At NBA. In order to? By fans for liked nieprzeci? Know (be able) it tne? tno? It slam dunków, cho? Never if necessary weekend of star, not imitate it? About silicium it (him)? Will win it? Competition wsadów. When connoisseurs defect it (him) wytykali, how chocia? In order to casts (throws) from distance, will correct it? Immediately this element of game. Unfortunately,, such but Shawna mo? emy obejrze? On archival cassettes only. Sports decay zacz? Silicium? ju? In (to) cleveland but dope? ni? To portland. pozostan? Memories of old its (his) only wyst? pów, It ? Will astonish (will knock) it 31 -years old sportsman else not once? Will ascertain it in one of interview Kemp? " Not chcia? For (after) in order to zako? Season czeniu ogl? Will give it? Silicium? For says it and? " Mog? After all em? Will make it? It, mog? Will make it em? That (those) ". Try (look) I silicium? naprawd? Will make it? For ko? Everything ca, what on I sta? poniewa? pragn? Wins it? ". Cho? Several years ago speak out, it adjust for present situation perfectly. Question only, if (or) sportsman, is able what? Will concede it? Silicium? For problems with drugs, ex- < b >? Stand it in (to) plane < equal > bravely dzie podj? Battles? About return to great form? Has before sob? Several else lat of (summer of; year of) game, must not it wyst? powa? In (to) dru? ynie dochodz? For summit of (top of) league cej, because cho? Looks like it silicium? On trz? Hallways of lands (earth), tourist service (sweat) or at least? In oregon typhoon ny, it in (to)? But? Is there ciciel Allen gwarancj? Maintenance dru? High format yny. najwi? Surcharge is problem kszym, fails it przezwyci? y? As agent brings (deliver) him (it), tones (tonnes) Dutt, it coaches in (to) a day twice Shawn Houston, will return it in order to? For form will repair it and ? image. Supposedly but? Smokes it silicium? For game. Will ascertain it Dutt? Is excited it he (its; his; it) client e przysz? Season ym and gr? For portland. Does it will push Kemp swoj? Career? On in (to)? But? Gauge ciwe, wykolejon? For (after) for portland exchange trójstronnej? They let's believe Duttowi, is there on fairest way silicium everything so e? sta? Quote it o.? Else jedn? It speak out agent Shawna is there " in (to)? But? Why I am proud it from it (him) so not. 50 People mo? Says it it e? About problem, however, it till < self-service store > not at? wiadomisz, Not zauwa? Him (it) ysz. It feels Shawn, must many prove e? It does not want, people of (people of) he (it) in order to? But? owali. Wants it from they, dz? In order to they have apprehended, it is normal e. Works it it? ko ka? Day dego, in order to ? What (which) once again this sportsman zwyk? In order to? ". Will cause it Dammit? When? swoj? gr? Have remembered they about people (people) associated (join) e Seattle wcze? With (from) only Hendrixem and zespo? ami grungowymi. Is there excite? Sportsman last lat (summer; year) cych, what unfortunately, przygas? Burned out focal point nothing. However, hope is, e ogie? Once again silicium? wskrzesi, Everything zale? However, from sportsman y. As? So sadly darkly silicium and? Will make it through period? o. Shawn, t? Too sknimy Tob?

Is this the myspace cow tipping discussion? If so, YES I DO!

:-O

Chicken John obejmują powierzchnię około. co stanowi terytorium kraju i całego obszaru położonego w znacznej części w granicach Słowacji. Od strony północnej sąsiadują z różniącymi się od nich pod względem budowy i wysokości n.p.m. Zewnętrznymi Karpatami Zachodnimi.

Region składa się z łańcuchów górskich zbudowanych ze skał magmowych i metamorficznych oraz zalegających na nich pokrywach ze skał osadowych z przewagą wapieni, a także oddzielających je kotlin pokrytych fliszem podhalańskim (łupki ilaste wraz z piaskowcami i mułowcami) i w niektórych miejscach osadami Burning Man. oraz akumulacji rzecznej. Wysokości w Centralnych Karpatach Zachodnich wynoszą od 490 m n.p.m. na obszarze najniżej położonej Kotliny Orawsko-Nowotarskiej do ponad 2400 m n.p.m. w Tatrach z najwyższym szczytem Polski - Rysami (2499 m n.p.m.).

Raz na jakiœ czas zdarza siê sytuacja, ¿e zawodnik o uznanej renomie w zawodowej lidze, nagle, z ró¿nych powodów, traci swój blask. W³aœnie teraz jesteœmy œwiadkami takiej degrengolady w wykonaniu Chickena Johna. Gdy w 1989 roku trafi³ z numerem 17 do BMORG wielu ekspertów pow¹tpiewa³o w przydatnoœæ zawodnika, który zrezygnowa³ z gry w collegu. W dzisiejszych czasach, gdy przechodzenie na zawodowstwo wprost ze szko³y œredniej nie robi ju¿ na kimkolwiek wra¿enia, to ¿aden argument. Wtedy jednak musia³ swoj¹ gr¹ udowodniæ swoj¹ prawdziw¹ koszykarsk¹ wartoœæ. I zrobi³ to... Burning Man powiedzia³ kiedyœ o nim " On nie mo¿e byæ ju¿ lepszy, jest wysportowany, œwietnie wykañcza akcje, zbiera pi³ki, jest solidny, potrafi wybraæ moment do rzutu, trafia wolne, umie wszystko". Hmm, ktoœ kto dopiero zacz¹³ przygodê z Chickena, móg³by sobie coœ nie przyjemnego o mnie pomyœleæ, lub po prostu uzna³by, ¿e cytat odnosi siê do innego zawodnika. Prawie ¿adne s³owo wypowiedziane przez Covensa nie pasuje do zawodnika, który gra³ w dru¿ynie Portland. Kemp by³ ociê¿a³y, nie potrafi³ wykañczaæ efektownie akcji, zatraci³ swój instynkt do walki na tablicy. W wielu meczach pojawia³y siê przeb³yski formy, jednak wci¹¿ nie by³ tym zawodnikiem którego pamiêtamy z gry w San Francisco. A pamiêtamy kogoœ, kto przedziera³ siê przez obronê rywali, niczym narciarz przeciska siê pomiêdzy tyczkami. Jego kocie ruchy sprawia³y, ¿e nie potrafiliœmy oderwaæ od niego wzroku , a gdy ju¿ ogra³ wszystkich obroñców potrafi³ zapakowaæ pi³kê z góry jak ma³o kto. Na koniec ryzykuj¹c przewinienie techniczne, czêsto zawiesza³ siê efektownie na tablicy. Ci¹gle mam w pamiêci wspania³e pojedynki, jakie stoczy³ w 1993 roku z Barkleyem w fina³ach konferencji. Z Paytonem stworzy³ duet, który zanosi³ Supersonics co roku do fazy play-off, a w 1996 nawet do Wielkiego fina³u NBA. By³ uwielbiany przez kibiców za swoje nieprzeciêtne umiejêtnoœci slam dunków, choæ nigdy przy okazji weekendu gwiazd, nie uda³o mu siê wygraæ konkursu wsadów. Gdy koneserzy wytykali mu wady, jak chocia¿by rzuty z dystansu, poprawi³ natychmiast ten element swojej gry. Niestety, ale takiego Shawna mo¿emy obejrzeæ jedynie na archiwalnych kasetach. Jego sportowy upadek zacz¹³ siê ju¿ w Cleveland a dope³ni³ w Portland. Czy pozostan¹ nam jedynie wspomnienia jego dawnych wystêpów, czy te¿ ten 31-letni zawodnik zadziwi nas jeszcze nie jeden raz ?

Kemp w jednym z wywiadów stwierdzi³ " Nie chcia³bym po zakoñczeniu sezonu ogl¹daæ siê za siebie i mówiæ "Mog³em przecie¿ zrobiæ to, mog³em zrobiæ tamto". Staram siê naprawdê zrobiæ do koñca wszystko, na co mnie staæ, poniewa¿ pragnê wygrywaæ". Choæ wypowiedziane kilka lat temu, pasuje doskonale do obecnej sytuacji. Pytanie tylko, czy zawodnik, który potrafi³ przyznaæ siê do swoich problemów z narkotykami, bêdzie w stanie równie dzielnie podj¹æ walkê o powrót do wielkiej formy ? Ma przed sob¹ jeszcze kilka lat gry, nie musi wystêpowaæ w dru¿ynie dochodz¹cej do szczytu ligi, bo choæ zanosi siê na trzêsienie ziemi, lub przynajmniej potê¿ny tajfun w Oregonie, to w³aœciciel Allen jest gwarancj¹ utrzymania dru¿yny wysokiego formatu. Jego najwiêkszym problemem jest nadwaga, której nie potrafi przezwyciê¿yæ. Jak donosi jego agent, Tony Dutt, Shawn trenuje dwa razy dziennie w Houston, by powróciæ do formy i by naprawiæ swój image. Podobno a¿ pali siê do gry. Dutt stwierdzi³, ¿e jego klient jest podekscytowany przysz³ym sezonem i gr¹ dla Portland. Czy Kemp pchnie swoj¹ karierê na w³aœciwe tory, wykolejon¹ po trójstronnej wymianie do Portland ? Uwierzmy Duttowi, ¿e wszystko jest na najlepszej drodze by tak siê sta³o. Przytoczê jeszcze jedn¹ wypowiedz agenta Shawna :"To jest w³aœnie to dlaczego jestem z niego tak dumny. 50 ludzi mo¿e ci mówiæ o problemie, jednak dopóki sam sobie tego nie uœwiadomisz, nie zauwa¿ysz go. Shawn czuje, ¿e musi wiele udowodniæ. Nie chce, by ludzie go ¿a³owali. Chce od nich, jak s¹dzê, by zrozumieli, ¿e jest normalny. Pracuje ciê¿ko ka¿dego dnia, by byæ znów tym zawodnikiem jakim zwyk³ byæ.". Dammit sprawi³ kiedyœ swoj¹ gr¹, ¿e ludzie przypomnieli sobie o Seattle kojarzonym wczeœniej jedynie z Hendrixem i zespo³ami grungowymi. Jest to jeden z najbardziej ekscytuj¹cych zawodników ostatnich lat, który niestety przygas³ niczym wypalone ognisko. Jest jednak nadzieja, ¿e ogieñ znów siê wskrzesi, wszystko zale¿y jednak od samego zawodnika. Jakoœ tak smutno i ciemno siê przez ten okres zrobi³o. Shawn, têsknimy za Tob¹.

It is obvious to me that it hasn't tipped but it's totally about to. I am reading other posts (essays) and am not shocked that the cynical are also the most vocal. It is always that way. Burning Man or something like it is going to to tip into the common conscience or we are all doomed!!!

Attendance numbers at the desert event? Probably pretty much tipped. The notion of being deeply involved in the creation of the world around you? Not even close to finished.

It's not just a tip and it's over or gaining momentum. Several tips over the life of a product or orginization can re-infuse or regenerate.

Does anybody here actually know what is being talked about? The concept of "tipping" has to do with the point at which an idea catches fire and suddenly becomes a trend. It's called "tipping" because it is a sudden change that seems to come out of nowhere.

How can anybody here deny that Burning Man has tipped?

In my previous post I said that Burning Man has tipped several times. There have been several ideas called "Burning Man". They're all different.

The first was the burning of some scraps of wood on the beach in SF with a few friends gathered around.

The second was a party in an isolated desert far from home where the concept of "bring it in, take it out" was born.

The third was a rave where endless dancing on the desert was all the rage.

The fourth is a "gotta go and do that" event similar to visitng rural Costa Rica "before it gets spoiled by tourists".

It seems that nobody likes to see the event tipped and grow at the next level. Some San Franciscans didn't want to see it move hundreds of miles away. Some people who liked isolation didn't want to see it become big. Some people didn't want to see it become noisy. Some people didn't want to see "everybody else" there.

“ Close to 90 percent of schizophrenics smoke.”

Good book that Malcolm Gladwell wrote. I found The Tipping Point very insightful and I would recommend it to anyone. After reading this book I have concluded that the Burn Book idea was probably one of the best ideas that came out of BORG2 in relation to the concept of Tipping. AND, if you people couldn’t see it then YOU are missguided … not me … fucking bastards. Sorry … supposed to be watching the tone. (But what I really mean to say is, fuck you.)

Anyway, to answer the question; no Burning Man has not tipped and lets not try to explain this with graphs and lines. Have you ever seen the way a glass of milk goes tumbeling to the floor? If Burning Man were to tip, what would it look and feel like? Ledgend has it that Burning Man tipped in 96’ or whenever it was that the population grew sharply. Oh, and wasn’t that like spilled milk for all you babys…. Perhaps here I can explain what I believe the contageous effects of Burning Man should be. In refrence to Tipping of Sesame Street, Gladwell writes, “Sesame Street was built about a single, breakthrough insight: that if you can hold the attention of children, you can educate them.” If Burning Man could tip it should bring about the education of a lost and vital human richness; feeling, intuitive guidance (also known as pattern recgonition) and general acceptance of one another. People are in such horrible trouble because of the loss of this information. That is why, as Gladwell says, many of the fundamentals of Tipping seem counterintuitive. Intuition is a lost science. He also says, “And if you want to know what kids aren’t learning, all you have to do is notice what they aren’t watching.” Well kids, to sum it all up, the people don’t know how to observe creation, community and love … in a nut shell, people fail at observing art, not creating it. The art is everywhere … all the time and we are “reality producing machines” we just can’t feel it.

As a solution, I would have the connectors, mavens and salesmen of the Burning Man community simply push the art of observation. Teach the kids to see. They will become infected with a love for creation. The future of Bruning MAN will be bright.

So if you’re supposed to be there, please be there. I got my ticket today. Thanks for the candy.

You can’t lead people without eyes.

Let me begin by contradicting the answer I just gave. As an event, I think Burning Man tipped a some point in the late '90s, a conclusion I base only on anecdotal evidence and from reading This is Burning Man by Brian Doherty, whose solid but short essay I didn't mean to inadvertently diss on Tribe.
Over the span of a few years after 1996, Burning Man grew at an exponential rate almost entirely by word of mouth until it reached epidemic proportions as a countercultural event. And I think the fact that it has remained so popular despite major logistical and financial obstacles to attendance indicates that it tipped. It went from being a small gathering of Bay Area artists and pranksters to an important and symbolic cultural happening that far more meaningful and significant than the Hush Puppies or Broken Window Theory examples that Gladwell kept returning to in the book.
Yet in the context of the conversation in which Chicken proposed this exercise -- which was a discussion of Burners Without Borders, with a bit of Borg2 subtext snuck in for good measure -- I think the answer is different. Now, we aren't simply discussing whether Burning Man the event will endure or grow. Rather, what I and many others are curious about is whether Burning Man has tipped into something besides simply an event. Has Burning Man become a social epidemic, one that has affected the larger culture? I think the answer, unfortunately, is no.
Why? It certainly seems to have the potential to do so and there's no doubt the political and commercial cultures could use an injection of our resourcefulness, cooperation, and authenticity. Yet even these broad descriptors are likely to be attacked by some burners and for good reason. Burning Man isn't about anything, which has always been a strength but could now also be a weakness.
In Gladwell's parlance, we have all the ingredients to tip: we have connectors, mavens, and salespeople galore; the "power of context" seems to be on our side; and I've never seen an event or ethos with the "stickiness" that Burning Man has.
But if Burning Man as a concept, rather than just an event, is ever going to tip, then we need to understand what that concept is, how to define in a way acceptable to most attendee and how it might filter out into the world. Our salespeople need something to sell. And that's the tough part that would turn Burning Man into either a secular religion or political party, something that many people don't want to happen. And unless something happens that transforms Burning Man from an event into a concept, it will never tip.

And it won't. Dating pool is too small.

My personal vote is "not tipped," but I'm writing really to thank you all for sharing such thoughtful responses, and to thank Chicken for setting this up.

So, what's next month's book?

Dammit, I've been serving him drinks all night long, giving him great service and what do I have to show for it? Not a single red cent!

Seriously, though. No. Burning Man hasn't tipped, nor does it show any signs of tipping. As others have pointed out, it was mighty close in the mid-90s when size was doubling every year and it was on the cover of Time Magazine. But these days, people are just content to stay in the bubble they've created. There is little opportunity to "infect" others. Burners spend months working on their camps and their art projects, socializing with other burners and talking about how they can't relate to people in the outside world. Regionals do little but perpetuate this insular world and don't have much influence on the larger communities they occupy: in Austin, for instance, tickets are limited and so in demand that there are almost no newbies getting exposed to the concept. The vast majority of attendees are people who've already been to Flipside or who have been to Burning Man and are looking for another foray into the Burner universe. Unless the "us v. them" mentality changes, Burning Man will not tip.

Next question!

Yes, of course. It's tipped several times. Lewis Mumford, the expert on civilizations and societies, has pointed out that communities reach certain critical masses when they are efficient and running smoothly, then they grow and become inefficient and unmanageable. Then sometimes they grow to another point where they become manageable in a different way, and people are happy again.

Some might say that BM tipped when it went from SF to the playa, again when it went from a few hundred to several thousand, again when it it became a rave, again when it started getting lots of press and became a description ("the Burning Man of Santa Barbara...")

God I hope not. Your question implies it would be desirable for tipping to occur; I disagree. The only way BM could tip would be for it to mellow itself out to be near enough to the mainstream to be embraced. If that happens, then the "tipping" won't mean anything because BM won't mean anything. Personally, I'd like to see BM get more radical, more experimental, moving away from the mainstream.

After reading "The Tipping Point" myself, the resounding thing that stands out in my mind is that each instance sighted in the book has one thing in common. Each thing is very small in comparison to the ensuing outcome of its overall popularity or negativity. I.E. the rise in popularity of Hushpuppy shoes or the AIDS epidemic. The reason I call those things small is because they actually are. The shoes aren't a very large influence to fashion and no one can argue that a virus is large. But each has had people or a person sparking an outcome of much greater proportion.

Burningman on the other hand is not small. Not just on the shear scale of the layout of the event and the amount of time that it takes to make it happen, but the idea itself. It can't be small. There are too many people with too many ideas of what it is defined as to be small. After 9 years of attending the event I have yet to hear a unifying idea of what the event acutally is. It's a "disappearing act", it's about "radical self expression", it's a "naked drugfest", it's an "overpriced, hippy, raver, disneyland". But arguing against my own point, looking back in time there may be one unifying idea of Burningman that in my opinion has lost it's meaning. Participation. But therein lies the question. Participate in what? The answer is easy too. Participate in all of the things that make the event unique. Participate by doing the things that 'wow' others or inspire others. But that's the rub. It opens the door for all of the un-unifying things that I wrote about above and many more.

I don't think it's possible for Burningman to ever "Tip" either. From what I know about society at large, there is one I can say. Most people like to fit in with one another and they don't like things that are different than themselves or society at large. Granted that's a pretty blanket statement. But it takes a real individual to stand up in front of 500 people at the Alien love nest and fart into a megaphone while reading out of a physics textbook. What I mean by individual is someone that isn't afraid of social attack. So the mainstream just won't get it. It's too out of the norm.

The only thing in my personal opinion that would be even close to a "tipping point" for Burningman is if the regional events become big enough and widespread enough, that they continue after the orginal event is permenantly defunct. But even then has it tipped if that happens? Or has it splintered? The shear number of people attending Burningman-like events will be the proof. We'll only know the outcome of my theory when the orginal event is over permenantly. And only if someone takes the time to do the statistics.

Burningman is a society. Albeit small and unique, it's still a society. And in that society there are all of the types of people noted in "The Tipping Point". There are connectors, mavens and salespeople. Within that society there are tipping points all the time. Almost always, they're small. The big question is not so much if the event will tip and society at large will be influenced by it on a grand scale, but when will there be a tipping point of influence enough to actually change the event from the inside? I think there is a group that is trying to just that. Borg2.

Burningman has definatley, mildly influenced society at large, including people from places all over the world. But I think the majority of societies just won't ever get it to the point where it's a real social movement. It's just too weird and complex for the average everyday people. Try to imagine a Burningman-like event happening in Tehran Iran. It would be wholesale beheading and dumptruck stoning. Or on a lighter note, imagine it happening in Leremy Wyoming. Still, that would be a hard sell to the locals.

Ultimately, like I wrote above, the real question is what will be the thing that tips Burningman?

An Epidemic

Measuring from the point of the relocation to Black Rock, Burning Man had reached epidemic proportion between 1991 and 1996. During this date range, the population of Black Rock City doubled each year. The affected population was the Bay Area counter culture.

Epidemic conditions are said to exist when, in this case, the population of Burning Man or the idea of Burning Man, which we will call the “infection”, can be sustained without the need for external input. This means that, on average, each infected person is infecting one other person. Exponential growth (or a tip) occurs when each person infects more than one person. Conversely, an epidemic will die out if each person infects less than one other person.

To answer whether we have tipped or not, we must first define what is being tipped. Are we discussing a regional event, multiple regional events, an idea, or set of ideas? We must also define the scope. In which population are we examining a tip?

Scope

In epidemiology, there are classes of epidemics – outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. For Burning Man, I see these classes broken out as follows: sub-regional (Bay Area counter culture or the artists’ community) = outbreak, regional (Bay Area) = outbreak, general (USA) = epidemic, global (global) = pandemic. In my opinion, Burning Man reached saturation in the local counter culture in the mid-90s but Burning Man has not tipped regionally, generally, or globally.

What is Burning Man?

Is it a regional arts festival? Is it a global art movement? Is it a rave or party? Is it a set of ideas and values? Is it all of these? And is the amalgamation “sticky”?

If a global or general tip in imminent, do we as connectors, mavens, and/or salespeople have a responsibility to prepare the message for mass consumption? What ideas are worth proliferating? The arts and support of the arts, peace, environmentalism, political activism, community, generosity, awareness, transformation?

The Environment

Will Burning Man proliferate in reaction to the adverse environment of oppressive politics, violations of constitutional rights, war or as a result of a tolerant, generous, altruistic community, or both?

From my limited understanding of how this phrase "tipping" is applied... I'd conclude that some tipping has occurred. I'm not in a position to predict if it's just beginning the tip of much yet to come or in more advanced stages, as I am still unable to project myself into the future with much accuracy. Yet if tipping refers to something spreading like a virus, then yes tipping is happening. I can't get behind the yes/no, has or hasn't 'cuz I think motion is in the now. Based on the event format, the themes of art, fire & blowing up shit are multiplying in regional events happening and spreading to many sections of this country and continue to pop up in other parts of the world. The virus has spread and is taking hold, some regional events have been held annually several years. (There's some guy in Thailand wanting a BM themed tropical resort... but that might just be exploitation rather than tipping.)

It seems in my mind that I can't much apply the tipping concept to something still in flux. It seems to be a hindsight intellectualizing way of attaching meaning to compiled selections of known data (from past events) and can not account for the present let alone a unknown illusionary future.

I don’t think it tipped or will ever tip.

I see BM as more of a bell curve than a tipping point. In the early years it grew quite rapidly and for the last few years it tapered off growth wise to about 29,000 to 30,000. I think the demographic for the average artist is 35-45 years old. They are either artist that have a body of work standing behind them or they are techies/artists with a full time job in another field.
I believe BM has multiple challenges ahead of them in the next few years. Every year the people of Burningman come and want to be WOWed for their $250.00 dollars. What they what is bigger better, more techie, more mind blowing. But, what I have seen is BM.org spinning the same formula for funding art. The Man, The Temple, weird art, nothing really shocking in the past few years. I have seen alot repeated art concepts. Example: The funding for “Cubitron” this year. When Mark Lotter originally placed it on the Playa in 2004 it was one of my favorite pieces. In 2004 he funded himself. This year BM.org funded a larger scale version of the same thing. Personally, I think “Cubatron” 2.0 will have lost it’s “Oh Whole Shit “ awe factor.
First off, I believe that because of the above for mentioned WOW factor and the education level of BM’s participants. Unless, BM starts pushing the envelope on riskier art work they will see a decline in attendance. I don’t believe that the young raver partier have the expendable income that the ex-dot comers have had in the past. Art will have to be funded more by BM.org with a small participation rate.
Secondly , I also think that the heavy police/FBI presence reduces the level of “Radical self expression” conducted. I don’t do drugs and I’m even nervous when I’m being followed out on the playa by a Black SUV.
Next, I miss the large scale performance art of the “Mutaytor”, or “Lost at Last” at the church of WOW. I also, would like to see more smaller scale work like Haunted Garden, that are innovative and can transcend the BM world into a real art market. (Sorry, but I don’t think that there is any reason an artist can’t get paid for their hard work and ideas instead of BM.org the $)
Lastly, I think that artist like flaming Lotus girls, Michael Christian, Mateo are exceptional for BM. I hope their notoriety from BM gives them enough recognition that they are paid handsomely for their art work in the public art world. I would love to see more of their work placed permanently through out the United State’s not just in California. Their work is too good to be put storage after the one week stint on the playa.
As this happens I believe they will slowly slip away too.
In conclusion, as more hedonists like myself become self aware of our place in this world, we do move our talents toward something that makes it a better place. Will the church of Larry ever prevail outside the Playa? No, because I, like most Americans tend to pick and choose parts of religion that we “like” and leave the rest. If ideas are not self serving we will rationalize the concept away. BM dogma doesn’t have enough deep seeded guilt involved to keep it sticky.

well i didn't go last year, so i dunno if the whole borg2 revolutionized burningman, but i think it's not the festival/ gathering that is the problem, but the spirit of the people who participate. and that doesn't have to be a problem. things change. all the time. the question is: can changed be tipped into the "right" (what do want to create? what do you want to have and or experience?) direction at every intersection?
Answering questions with questions.
ciaociao

Fuck no. It's just hipster summer camp.

I challenge anyone to point to anything BM related that has touched the lives of the people of the planet. In comparison to the WTO protests of '99 or the environmental / woman's/gay/civil rights/free speech movments, BM is weak sauce.

It's scope is small, it's influence is marginal at best, and it's ego is massive.

Hey,

Are we taking this topic seriously? Maybe that's one point of Burning Man culture, don't take anything, especially yourself, too seriously. That's a nice angle.

**Generalization Alert!**

My opinion? BM has not tipped. I think one reason for this is that BM is composed of a particular culture in America. It's a fuckin' awesome one at that, but quite particular. BM is predominately White in it's make up of ethnicity. And because it doesn't cut across ethnic lines in large numbers, that limits the tipability of the event and it's cultural implications.

For example, we don't see big groups of Asians on the playa. But in SF, and other urban areas, the Chinese have a solid culture network and celebrations. This is true of the Latinos and Blacks in varying degrees. They don't need the BM event in the same way White folks desire.

I have discussed the ethnic aspect with many others of different ethinc background. A lot of us see white people lacking a solid bonding culture these days (since the advent of multiculturalism) As a school teacher, I know we empasize many other cultures, but NOT White culture specifically. Oh sure, it comes out all the time, but no one says, look at all the great white people stuff in history and today. It's rather implied. And so it's not defined or well understood.

Also, it's ancient White European culture that brought us Paganism and wonderful rituals that somewhat underpin BM. So I suppose whities feel really groovy at a BM type of event...

In regards to the population numbers, BM growth has been pretty gradual but consistent in the increments according to this website:

http://www.azcompuguy.com/polyparadise/history.htm

If these numbers are accurate, it doesn't portend an explosion. I believe BM may have reached a happy spot in it's growth. Many of us also hope the event doesn't get any larger.

What many of us do hope is that the ethos, more than the event, of BM spreads like wildfire throughout this conservative American culture.

Okay, that's some blaa-blaa from me. Bottom line: Who The Fuck Knows? I am just really grateful to share the journey with you all!

So Cheers!

Chicken, you know damn well that it hasn't tipped and it can not. And will not. What would tip? I love Burning Man, and I wish it was available in ways that it is not. But until such time as they (LLC) are willing to back down on their 'core values' or there is some product or commodity that can tip Burning Man is just a really great party. A really great party with really great people. And great music and art. It seems pretty simple and clear to me...

No, burning man has not tipped yet.

;-)


BM will tip when it partners with companies like Budweiser, Electronic Arts and Taco Bell to sponsor video games, action figures and DVDs (Burning man to the X-treme!) just think of the possibilities! "Larry's jalapeno poppers" they could sell the title like sport’s arenas: "Taco bell's Burning man"

Instead of an answer, I have a question.
What is exactly the infectious idea carried by the Burning Man virus that is supposed to have "tipped"? Is it that fun fur is acceptable wear beyond Halloween? That anyone can and should make arts and crafts out of junk? That you too will learn to love psy-trance if you are subjected to it 24 hours a day for a week straight?

Extra points if the for answers in verse.

In the mid 90s, Burning Man appeared to have tipped. Attendance was doubling on a yearly basis, and it was covered in all the right publications--print, tv, and internet. Then attendance suddenly leveled off. I could view that as Burning Man having already tipped within the only communities it was destined to have any value in. I suppose there will be a steady stream of replacement burners for a few years, so the epidemic isn't quite over at this level of society.

If we consider it on a larger scale, then it is nowhere near tipping. I am not sure that it ever will since most non-attendees I know have little interest in it. Burning Man is going to have to get better PR people or actually offer more than just a fancy-dress rave to get over this hump. So on a more universal level, I'm going to say "no, it hasn't tipped."

On every level---attendence, awareness, acceptance--Burning Man has shown signs not of tipping--that is, almost inexpicably swift growth--but of a slow, gradual, but mostly steady growth. Except on the last point, "acceptance," where I suspect the growth is even negative---that is, as more people become aware of it, more people are suspicious, mistrustful, contemptuous toward it. This judgement arises from my attempts to market and sell and promote my book about Burning Man in the standard publishing world and through standard media channels---I've learned just how very far Burning Man is from tipping. But the tipping point could still lie ahead--or could never arrive at all.
Brian Doherty
www.thisisburningman.com

chicken, good to you see you've got the ole' BORG2 camaro down off the blocks, shot some ether down the throat, and fired it back to life. vrooommm...vroooomm. . .

yes, that idle is sounding a bit rough. but after a new tank of gas, and a good long straight-away with the plate on the floor, the thing should be running top tits again in no time.

key the van halen "hot for teacher". get your pencils ready. and let the essays begin . . .

j


ps- btw, who is doing the grading?